Peor caída desde los 80: economía cierra el 2020 con un retroceso de 6%

 

  • Por Felipe Pinochet. 

 

 

De acuerdo al informe entregado este lunes 1 de febrero por el Banco Central, el Índice Mensual de la Actividad Económica (Imacec) cerró 2020 con una contracción de 6%, siendo el peor desempeño desde la crisis que vivió el país a principios de la década del 80. Cabe mencionar que el último mes del año tuvo una caída de 0,4% en diciembre comparado con igual mes de 2019, siendo los sectores que arrastraron el indicador los servicios (-2,1%) y la minería (- 9,2%), aún cuando el comercio creció 10,8%.

 

La pérdida por el menor crecimiento del año pasado se estima que fue de US$ 16.964 millones, según el economista de LyD, Felipe Berger, y de unos US$ 16.800 millones para el economista jefe de BICE, Marco Correa, en base a precios y tipo de cambio actuales.

 

En tanto, para el gerente de Macroeconomía de Inversiones Security, César Guzmán, y el economista jefe de Itaú Miguel Ricaurte, el costo ascendería a los US$ 30.000 millones.

 

Al mirar la serie desestacionalizada, la actividad productiva registró un incremento de 3,5% frente a noviembre, con lo que retomó los crecimientos mensuales que evidenció desde junio y que fueron interrumpidos en octubre cuando retrocedió 0,5%. 

 

En esa línea, el documento del BC destacó el repunte de 7% en los servicios, aunque ello no logró disipar el lento andar que se asume para el primer trimestre del año.

 

En cuanto al panorama para este 2021, el economista senior de BCI Estudios, Felipe Moncado, asume una caída anual de 0,1% para el primer trimestre e indicó que “vemos que la debilidad de la economía se mantendrá durante la primera parte de este año, y bases de comparación más exigentes llevarían al Imacec nuevamente a terreno negativo”.

 

A este escenario se suma Correa, con una baja de 1%; también la economista de Euroamérica, Martina Ogaz, con un retroceso de 2,4%: y el subgerente de Estudios de Econsult, Mauricio Carrasco, quien es más pesimista con una contracción de 4%.

 

 

 

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